Tomorrow at 7:30 am (CST), the Academy announces the nominees for the 85th Annual Academy Awards.
One of the least predictable line-ups is in the offering tomorrow, but some things are certain.
- Les Miserables will contend with Lincoln for the most nominations. Desipte mixed responses, Les Mis is the type of fare that gets plenty of nominations. Those same mixed responses will likely keep its win total lower than originally thought, but it'll land in a lot of "top 5s", meaning tons of nominations. Oh, and go ahead and place a bet on Anne Hathaway to win Best Supporting Actress.
- This will not be a good year for independents. Aside from the usual categories where they do well by default (Best Documentary and Best Foreign Language Film), the studios will dominate in most categories. The exceptions: Beasts of the Southern Wild and Michael Haneke's Amour could pull in a few nominations.
- NaFF films have a shot at up to nine nominations. While I'd love it, it would take a miracle for all nine to pull through. Still, it's a good position for the films we screened last April (and one from April 2011).
I'm not going to predict all categories (there are many websites for that - including frequent NaFF juror Nathaniel Rogers' TheFilmExperience.net), but for kicks and giggles, here's what I expect to be named tomorrow.
Best Picture:
- Argo
- Les Miserables
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Zero Dark Thirty
If they go up to ten, here's what I expect in order:
- Amour, Django Unchained, Beasts of the Southern WIld, Skyfall
Best Director
- Ben Affleck, Argo
- Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
- Michael Haneke, Amour
- Ang Lee, Life of Pi
- Stephen Spielberg, Lincoln
Spoilers:
- David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook;, Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Best Actress
- Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
- Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
- Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
- Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
- Quvenshane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Spoilers:
- Naomi Watts, The Impossible; Helen Mirren, Hitchcock; Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
Best Actor
- Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
- Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
- Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
- Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
- Denzel Washington, Flight
Spoilers:
- John Hawkes, The Sessions; Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
Best Supporting Actress
- Amy Adams, The Master
- Judi Dench, Skyfall
- Sally Field, Lincoln
- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
- Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Spoilers:
- Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy; Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel; Ann Dowd, Compliance; Jackie Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor
- Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
- Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
- Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
- Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Spoilers
- Alan Arkin, Argo; John Goodman, Flight; Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables; Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike; Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Best Original Screenplay
- Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
- Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
- Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
- Michael Haneke, Amour
- Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Spoilers:
- Looper, Flight
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Tony Kushner, Lincoln
- David Magee, Life of Pi
- David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
- Chris Terrio, Argo
Spoilers:
- Ben Lewin, The Sessions; William Nicholson, Les Miserables; Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Best Foreign Language Film
- From Austria, Amour
- From Chile, No
- From Denmark, A Royal Affair
- From France, The Intouchables
- From Norway, Kon-Tiki
Best Documentary
- 5 Broken Cameras
- Bully
- Chasing Ice
- The Gatekeepers
- Searching for Sugar Man
So, there you have it. I know I'm not right. I went out on a limb on a few and hewed close to conventional wisdom on others. There are always surprises - even if it's a lack of surprises where you expect them.
More tomorrow when they're announced.
